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SAN PEDRO DAILY
Friday, July 15, 2005
 
WEATHER
July 15, 2005 (6:00 am)

SAN PEDRO WEATHER DISCUSSION by Winston Panton (with
excerpts from the Regional Hurricane Center)
TROPICAL WEATHER DEVELOPMENT

HURRICANE EMILY WAS CENTERED NEAR 13.6N 67.5W AT
15/0300 UTC (9 PM)...OR ABOUT 375 MILES SSE OF SANTO
DOMINGO IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
MOVING WNW AT 17 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED WAS
110 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 135 KT AND THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE WAS
957 MB.

EMILY HAS CONTINUED TO INTENSIFY AND IS NOW A CATEGORY
4 HURRICANE
BASED ON A RECONNAISSANCE AT 0505Z (1 AM). THE
PRESSURE HAD ALSO DECREASED TO 952 MB...DOWN ANOTHER 4
MB.

SEE LATEST FORECAST/ADVISORY FOR MORE DETAILS.

***********************

Unstable conditions and the development of cloudy and
showery weather over Belize and Yucatan will
continue.

San Pedro and Caye Caulker will experience for the
next 24 hrs: Winds east to northeast 10 to 20 kts.
with squally gusts occurring near heavier showers.

Marine interests should exercise caution in moderate
to rough seas and squalls

AND SHOULD ALSO CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE HURRICANE
ADVISORIES ISSUED BY LOCAL AUTHORITIES..

Skies will be cloudy at times along with early morning
and late afternoon showers or thundershowers. Sunny
periods will develop late morning .

Western Caribbean:

SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE W
CARIBBEAN S OF 18N TO INLAND OVER PANAMA/COSTA RICA
BETWEEN 72W-86W. THIS ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN
AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IN BETWEEN THE RIDGE
EXTENDING FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO S OVER CENTRAL
AMERICA AND A DEVELOPING UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER CUBA.
THE UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED MOVE WESTWARD OVER THE NW
CARIBBEAN DURING THE NEXT 2 DAYS PRODUCING CONFLUENCE
AND DRY/STABLE CONDITIONS TO ITS WEST AND
DIFFLUENCE/UNSTABLE CONDITIONS TO THE EAST.

THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NOW OVER THE BAHAMAS AND
CUBA IS FORECAST TO BECOME A CUTOFF LOW AND RETROGRADE
WESTWARD REACHING THE YUCATAN PENINSULA SAT.

Central Caribbean:

HURRICANE EMILY WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER
THROUGH
THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS IT CONTINUES WNW UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A
STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE ATLC.

EMILY COULD BECOME A CAT 4 HURRICANE IN THE NEXT 24
HOURS. SCATTERED/NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN
60 NM OF THE CENTER TO THE SW AND WITHIN 90 TO 120 NM
OF THE CENTER TO THE NE. UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN
IS FAIRLY SYMMETRICAL. THE FORECASTED TRACK WILL TAKE
EMILY JUST S OF JAMAICA FRI NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING.
SEE LATEST FORECAST/ADVISORY FOR MORE DETAILS. http://www.hydromet.gov.bz/
gen_wx_ forecast.html




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