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SAN PEDRO DAILY
Sunday, July 17, 2005

July 17, 2005 (6:00 am)

SAN PEDRO WEATHER DISCUSSION by Winston Panton (with
excerpts from the Regional Hurricane Center)
TROPICAL WEATHER DEVELOPMENT

HURRICANE EMILY WAS CENTERED NEAR 17.7N 81.2W OR ABOUT
415 MILES MILES...670 KM... EAST SOUTHEAST OF COSUMEL
MEXICO AND ABOUT 110 MILES...175 KM...SOUTH OF GRAND
CAYMAN AT 17/0600 UTC (MIDNIGHT) MOVING WNW 18 KT.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS DOWN TO 943 MB
AND THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED WAS AT THE
THRESHOLD OF A CATEGORY 4...130 KT WITH GUSTS TO 160
KT.

EMILY CONTINUES TO DISPLAY AN IMPRESSIVE SATELLITE
APPEARANCE WITH ALL THE SIGNS OF A DANGEROUSLY STRONG
HURRICANE INCLUDING A WELL-DEFINED AND CLEAR EYE...AND
GOOD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW WITH A POLEWARD OUTFLOW JET.

HURRICANE EMILY IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA SUN AND ENTER THE GULF OF MEXICO ON MON.
SOME OF THE UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW FROM EMILY IS ALREADY
SPREADING OVER PORTIONS OF THE EXTREME SE GULF AND
FLORIDA.

SEE LATEST FORECAST/ADVISORY FOR MORE DETAILS.

***********************

A brief period of stable atmospheric conditions over
Belize will give way to rapidly deteriorating weather
after miday today. It will then unstable and
favourable for the development of cloudy and showery
weather over during the next 24 hours.

San Pedro and Caye Caulker will experience for the
next 24 hrs: Fair and sunny skies at first until
about midday with variable light winds from the
southeast. In the afternoon cloudy and later overcast
skies will develop accompanied by showery and squally
conditions. Winds will gradually become 10 to 20 kts.
with squally higher gusts occurring near heavier
showers.

Marine interests should exercise caution in moderate
to rough seas and squalls and remain in port for the
near passage of Hurrricane Emily

OUTLOOK: Conditions will return to mainly fair and
sunny weather.

THE GENERAL PUBLIC SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE EMILY BEING ISSUED BY LOCAL
AUTHORITIES..

Western and Central Caribbean:

HURRICANE EMILY CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER OVER
THE W CARIBBEAN SEA WITH ASSOCIATED RAINBANDS
EXTENDING OUTWARD UP TO 260 NM TO THE N OF THE CENTER.

NOAA BUOY 42057 NEAR 16N81.5W REPORTED THAT WINDS HAVE
CURRENTLY ONLY INCREASED TO 23 KT. AND SEAS OF 10 FT
WHICH SHOULD AID IN DETERMINING A FAIRLY ACCURATE 12
FT SEA RADII ESTIMATE ON THE SOUTH SIDE.

EMILY IS EXPECTED TO PASS VERY NEAR NOAA BUOY 42056 AT
20N85W THIS AFTERNOON.

AN AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATED/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS ALSO NOTED FURTHER W ALONG THE COAST OF
SOUTHERN BELIZE MOVING INLAND. THIS ACTIVITY IS IN
ASSOCIATION WITH AN UPPER LOW OVER THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA. THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY
FROM EMILY THUS RELAXING THE SHEAR AND ALLOWING
IMPROVED POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR
STRENGTHENING.

THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE MOVING WESTWARD
AND CONTINUE TO WEAKEN.

LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS NUMEROUS CONVECTION
WITH EMILY IS WITHIN 60 NM OVER THE SW SEMICIRCLE AND
WITHIN 200 NM OVER THE NE SEMICIRCLE INCLUDING
JAMAICA. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE VERY
HEAVY RAINFALL...STRONG WINDS...AND POSSIBLE LIFE
THREATENING FLOODING OVER JAMAICA AND THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS EARLY THIS MORNING....THEN EFFECTING THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA LATER TODAY. SEE LATEST
FORECAST/ADVISORY FOR MORE DETAILS.

http://www.hydromet.gov.bz/
gen_wx_ forecast.html

Hurricane Emily is Cat 4 !

Over 9,000 persons evacuated by plane and boat yesterday

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