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San Pedro Daily
Wednesday, August 10, 2005
 

WEATHER
August 10, 2005 (6:00 am)
SAN PEDRO WEATHER DISCUSSION by Winston Panton (with
excerpts from the Regional Hurricane Center)

TODAY’S FORECAST

Conditions over Belize and Northwest Caribbean will
produce only isolated showers and thundershowers which
will be more frequent over southern Belize.

San Pedro and Caye Caulker will experience for the
next 24 hrs: Cloudy and warm with isolated early
morning and afternoon showers or thundershowers. Winds
will be eastnortheasterly at 5 to 15 kts . and
occasionally gusting to 20 kts. Sea state will be
light chop and choppy in the vicinity of the heavier
showers.

The outlook is for fair weather through Thursday.

Western Caribbean:

MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN CENTERED
NEAR 11N80W WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING N ACROSS CUBA
TO OVER S FLORIDA. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE
CARIBBEAN W OF 70W TO OVER CENTRAL AMERICA. MOIST
UPPER AIR IS HAVING LITTLE EFFECT ON GENERATING
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AS THE LOWER LEVELS ARE DRY.

Central Caribbean:

CENTRAL PART OF CARIBBEAN REMAINS UNDER INFLUENCE OF
BRISK TRADE
WINDS REACHING 25 KT NEAR COLOMBIA COAST THROUGH THU
NIGHT.

CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 71W/72W S OF 20N
MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE IS BENEATH N UPPER FLOW ON THE
E EDGE OF AN UPPER HIGH WITH DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS
ARE ONLY PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 16N-19N BETWEEN 72W-76W.

Eastern Caribbean:

MID/UPPER LOW IS IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC...SW OF
IRENE...PRODUCING NW TO W FLOW AND VERY DRY UPPER AIR
OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 70W.

UPPER LOW IN THE TROPICAL ATLC WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
LESSER ANTILLES BEFORE THE WEEKS END.

TROPICAL STORM DEVELOPMENT

TROPICAL DEPRESSION IRENE IS CENTERED NEAR 22.4N 55.5W
AT 10/0300 UTC MOVING W AT 9 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WIND SPEED IS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.

IRENE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN DRY UPPER AIR BUT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. http://www.hydromet.gov.bz/ gen_wx_ forecast.html


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Wet Weather Expected
August, September and October are expected to be unusually wet across most of Belize this year. This is the conclusion of Central American and Mexican climatologists and meteorologists meeting at the II Climate Outlook Forum for Central America for 2005 in Panama last week. Rainfall is expected to be above normal over most of the country except over the Maya Mountains where rainfall is expected to be normal.

Weather experts from Central America and Mexico meet every three months to prepare an objective consensus outlook of weather conditions for the following three months. They examine and interpret the outputs from numerical prediction models which forecast atmospheric and oceanic conditions months in advance. These include factors such as sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic, Caribbean and the Pacific, the position and strength of quasi-permanent features like the Bermuda high, and the direction and strength of the wind in the upper atmosphere.

Most of Central America is also expected to be wetter than normal. Ramon Frutos, Deputy Chief Meteorologist who represented Belize at this meeting believes that this means that this year our "mauga season" will be very short and weak, or we might not see it at all. The "mauga season" usually occurs in August and is a short dry in the middle of the wet season. The group also noted that the second half of the hurricane season would be active. Tropical storms and hurricanes are one of the biggest rainmakers during this time of the year.

The unusual wet period is expected to disrupt agricultural activities in the field, and trigger rapid runoff and floods especially in the Cayo, Belize, Stann Creek and Toledo Districts. High moisture levels may promote fungal and bacterial infestation in crops such as onions, soya, peppers and corn. For the potable water sector, water levels in most rivers and tributaries will be normal or above normal, and abstraction should only be disrupted by floods. Groundwater tables will remain high as most aquifers have now been recharged. Water levels in the Mountain Pine Ridge should be favourable for reliable and consistent hydropower generation.

The Central American Climate Outlook Forum is organized by the Central American Hydrological Committee and is co-sponsored by the Government of Mexico. For more information on the climate outlook and its implications for Belize, please contact Mr. Ramon Frutos at the National Meteorological Service. 

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